3. Single-equation models
The goal of macroeconomic modeling and the typical behavior of economic time series
Tabulating and plotting a function in a spreadsheet - simulating y for known x's
Linear equations
Log-linear equations
Lagged y-terms: gradual adjustment (difference equations)
Lagged x-terms - limited-in-time adjustment
Stochastic equations
Stochastic difference equations
Gradual adjustment as an optimal response,

Excel simulations: First-order difference equation with x-variable, Second-order difference equation with x-variable, Limited-in-time adjustment, Government debt, Phillips curve, Disinflation and interest rates, Inflation expectations, Disinflation and unemployment, Adaptive expectations, Cagan seignorage, Consumption smoothing, Two-period model of consumption

 
4. Univariate time series models and trends                               
Autoregressive equations
Moving average equations
ARMA models
Is there a trend?
Stationary and non-stationary variables
Decomposing a variable into the trend and the cyclical component
A deterministic, exponential trend
Deterministic trend with ARMA model of the cycle
Segmented deterministic trend
Stochastic trend
Continuous trends: Quadratic trend and Hodrick-Prescott trend
Summary: A suggested strategy for choosing the trend

Excel simulations: Excel simulations: ARMA model, Deterministic trend, Stochastic trend (ARIMA), Hodrick-Prescott trend, Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of cycle and stochastic trend

5. Multi-equation models                                                         
Simultaneous models
Recursive models
Excel simulations: Keynesian business cycle, Multiplier-accelerator model, Dynamic aggregate demand and supply model, IS-LM, Solow model

6. Multivariate time series models (VARs and VECs)
The VAR model
Structural VARs
Structural VAR models with more than two variables
Calculating the impulse response function
The vector error-correction model (VEC)
Conclusions

7. Forecasting
Types of forecast
Constructing conditional and unconditional forecasts
Measuring forecast uncertainty
Using forecast errors to investigate the importance of different shock types - Variance decomposition

8. Policy analysis
The effects of policy actions (impulse responses)
The effects of policy rules (stochastic simulation)
Excel simulations: Policy with additive uncertainty, Policy with multiplicative uncertainty

Appendix: Transformation of variables
Index calculations
Chaining
Deflating
Taking logarithms
Calculating a stock as a sum of flows